DHL 全球贸易晴雨表 (GTB)表明未来三个月世界贸易将进一步收缩。整体贸易前景下调 -2 点，新指数值为45。这意味着全球贸易继续失去动力，尽管是温和的。与之前的更新相比，下跌趋势基本温和而稳定，既不表明下跌加速，也不表明触底反弹。除印度外，所有接受调查的国家都受到减速和创纪录的指数低于50 点的无增长门槛的影响。整体下降是由空运和集装箱海运贸易的小幅下降造成的。航空贸易下降 -3 至 42 点，集装箱海运贸易下降-2 至 46 个指数点。为了使 DHL全球贸易晴雨表及其数据更具可性，我们在下面创建了一个新的数字平台Logisticsofthings.dhl/gtb.此外，彭博终端的订阅者现在也可以使用代码“DHLG ”获得该指数。
“根据 DHL全球贸易晴雨表，今年可能会以温和的世界贸易结束。然而，我们必须牢记我们的来源：近年来世界贸易的快速增长就像攀登珠穆朗玛峰。现在，我们正在下降，但我们仍在呼吸高空空气”，DHLGlobal Forwarding Freight 执行官 Tim Scharwath 说。
稳定但温和的下降对所有国家产生负面影响，印度除外
在七个接受调查的国家中，有六个国家的贸易前景略为负面：德国和中国均下降 -3 点，指数分别为 45 和42。对于德国而言，这一发展主要是由航空贸易前景疲软引发的，该指数大幅下降 -7 点至45。被调查的国家。毋庸置疑，这种低迷可以归因于中美之间正在进行的贸易战。预计美国贸易也将进一步收缩，尽管总体贸易前景几乎保持不变，为44 个指数点（与上次更新相比为 -1 点）。韩国的整体前景下降 -2 点至 43 的新指数值。
“世界经济正进入停滞阶段，反映出一些主要经济体增长乏力且放缓，其他经济体基本没有增长或温和收缩。持续的贸易紧张局势、政治不稳定和地缘政治风险加剧以及对货币刺激措施效力有限的担忧继续侵蚀企业和消费者信心，对投资和生产力增长产生不利影响。美国纽约州伊萨卡市康奈尔大学贸易政策与经济学教授Eswar S. Prasad评论道，家庭消费的增长一直是近期经济表现的基础，它一直保持强劲，但在主要发达和新兴市场经济体中正在减弱。“的 DHL全球贸易晴雨表更新显示，国际贸易流量受到这些因素的不利影响。中国和美国这两个全球增长的主要驱动力的指数下降预示着全球经济前景恶化。总体而言，此次GTB 更新描绘了一幅令人警醒的图景，即今年剩余时间世界经济和全球贸易的黯淡前景。”
印度是一个设法恢复温和增长前景的国家，在非常强劲的海洋贸易的支持下，该指数上升了 5 个百分点至 54。与持续疲软的航空贸易（-4点至 44）相反，印度洋贸易显着增加了 +10 至 60 的指数。
与上一期相比，下降到达日本和英国的延迟：损失的国家
除印度外，有两个国家发展尤其突出：日本和英国。虽然在 9月的上一次更新中，日本和英国是仅有的贸易前景乐观的国家，但这两个国家在此期间的跌幅。日本和英国都跌破了 50 点门槛。
日本贸易增长一段时间后，对日本的预测下降 -5 点至 48。这种预期的放缓主要是由于日本航空贸易的前景疲软，下降 -7 点至 42指数点。下降-4 点至51，日本海洋贸易仍录得正增长势头。然而，略微乐观的前景并不能抵消日本航空贸易的大幅下滑。与日本不同，英国贸易在上次更新中已经出现下降趋势。在接下来的三个月里，英国的预测低于不变点：下降-4 点至新的指数值 49，GTB 表明英国贸易将温和下降。下降的原因是空气（-4 至 49）和海洋贸易（-5 至48）略有减少。经过几个季度的相对弹性，
The DHL Global Trade Barometer (GTB) indicates a furthercontraction in world trade for the next three months. The overalltrade outlook is reduced by -2 points, to a new index value of 45.That means that global trade continues to lose momentum, albeitmildly. Against the previous updates, the downward tendency islargely moderate and steady, neither indicating an acceleration ofthe decline nor a bottoming out. Except India, all surveyedcountries are affected by the deceleration and record indexes belowthe 50-points-threshold of no growth. The overall decline wasdriven by minor decreases in both, air and containerized oceantrade. Air trade declined by -3 to 42 points, and containerizedocean trade by -2 to 46 index points. To make the DHL Global TradeBarometer and its data more assessable a new digital platform hasbeen created under logisticsofthings.dhl/gtb. In addition, theindex is now also available for subscribers of the Bloombergterminal by using the code “DHLG ”.
“According to the DHL Global Trade Barometer the year willprobably end with moderate world trade. However, we’ve to bear inmind where we come from: The rapid growth world trade has undergonein recent years was like climbing the Mount Everest. Now, we are onthe descent, but we are still breathing altitude air”, TimScharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, says.
Steady but mild decline negatively affects all countries, exceptIndia
Out of seven surveyed countries, six record mildly negative tradeoutlooks: Germany and China both fall by -3 points to an index of45 and 42, respectively. For Germany, this development is mainlytriggered by a weakening air trade outlook, which significantlydrops by -7 points to 45. The slowdown in Chinese trade is causedby both, sluggish air and ocean trade, leaving China with theweakest growth outlook of all surveyed countries. Needless to say,that this downturn can be attributed to the ongoing trade warbetween China and the US. US trade is also expected to contractfurther, albeit an almost unchanged overall trade outlook of 44index points (-1 points compared to the previous update). Theoverall outlook for South Korea decreases by -2 points to a newindex value of 43.
“The world economy is entering a phase of stagnation, reflectingweak and slowing growth in some major economies and essentially nogrowth or mild contraction in others. Persistent trade tensions,elevated political instability and geopolitical risks, and concernsabout the limited efficacy of monetary stimulus continue to erodebusiness and consumer sentiment, with detrimental effects oninvestment and productivity growth. Growth in householdconsumption, which has underpinned recent economic performance, hasstayed strong but is weakening in major advanced and emergingmarket economies,” comments Eswar S. Prasad, Professor of TradePolicy and Economics at Cornell University in Ithaca, NY, USA. “Thelatest DHL Global Trade Barometer update shows that internationaltrade flows have been adversely impacted by these factors. Thedeclining indexes for China and the U.S the two main drivers ofglobal growth, portend a worsening global economic outlook.Overall, this GTB update paints a sobering picture of gloomyprospects for the world economy and global trade for the remainderof this year.”
India is the only country which manages to return to a moderategrowth outlook, picking up +5 points to 54 on the back of a veryrobust ocean trade. In contrast to continuously weak air trade (-4point to 44), Indian ocean trade significantly increases by +10 toan index of 60.
Decrease from previous period reaches Japan and UK with delay:Countries with highest losses
Apart from India, two country developments stand out inparticular: Japan and the UK. While Japan and the UK had been theonly countries with positive trade outlooks in the previous updatein September, the two countries record the highest losses in thisperiod. Both, Japan and the UK are falling below the50-points-threshold.
Following a period of growth for Japanese trade, the forecast forJapan falls by -5 points to 48. This expected slowdown is mainlytriggered by weakening prospects for Japanese air trade which dropsby -7 points to 42 index points. Declining -4 points to 51,Japanese Ocean trade still records positive growth momentum.However, the slightly positive outlook is not able to offset thesignificant downturn of Japanese air trade. Unlike Japan, UK tradehad already recorded a downward tendency in the previous update.For the next three months, the forecast for the UK falls below thepoint of no change for the first time: Dropping -4 points to a newindex value of 49, the GTB indicates a mild decrease for UK trade.The decline is caused by a slight decrease in air (-4 to 49) aswell as Ocean trade (-5 to 48). After several of relativeresilience, this development obviously reflects the persistingBrexit uncertainty.